sakeriver.com

Round 1 actions, random numbers and round 1

From: Randy

Subject Round 1 actions

OOC: Seriously? A 1 for Ranthir's initiative roll? Man, that Dexterity modifier really can't help that roll much. Sorry I didn't get a reply in earlier. I had today off of work in lieu of Canada Day on Saturday. I'm just catching up now.



From: Randy

Subject Round 1 actions

Ranthir will move to flank the Salamander and then attack. He will dodge if possible.

OOC: Ranthir gets a +4 dodge vs. attacks of opportunity so he isn't too worried about them. He doesn't get to move until the very end though so it probably won't help Mund much this round.



From: Mark

Subject Round 1 actions

He would provoke an AOO from the creature, but Ran took mobility as his feat this past level which gives him a +4 dodge bonus to AC against AOO when he moves through threathened squares which givs him an AC of 24 when doing so.



From: Mark

Subject Round 1 actions

Remember that Hippogriffs are large creatures and take up 4 squares. You can not place them that close to each other.



From: Mark

Subject Round 1 actions

Kal got left off the original map but he is at K-16, just behind Harp and Ragnar, not Mund and Ranthir.

He can attack the salamander that Harp and Ragnar will be attacking.



From: Mark

Subject Surin's move

You can do a double move and not attack this round. Assuming you are trying to hide in shadows you move 10 feet per move action so you could move 20 feet this round.



From: Mark

Subject Round 1 actions

Canada Day? What type of country has Canada Day? Oh yeah, Canada. :)

There were actually three 20's rolled for Init this round and one 1. Sorry, I use an online random number generator and have it roll 8 numbers and then go down the line of the players and assign scores.



From: Mark

Subject Round 1 actions

Actually by the time Ran's turn comes around the creature will probably already be flanked by Salix's hippogriffs.



From: Randy

Subject Round 1 actions

In that case, assuming Ran is still alive, he will attack the creature twice.



From: Porter

Subject Round 1 actions

Mund is pleased to see Ran moving to flank the sally-meaner and lays into himself.



From: Kevin

Subject Random numbers

OOC: To any math whizzes out there, when making 8 d20 rolls, what are the chances that 3 of those 8 rolls will be at the complete ends of the spectrum.

I still question the validity of these "random" number genertors. I remember the first multi disk cd players that had a "random" function. They were never really random, and I think those programmers got hired by some of these game sites.



From: Karl

Subject Round 1 actions

OK, you can adjust accordingly.



From: Porter

Subject Random numbers

Just because the numbers look odd doesn't mean that they aren't random.



From: Derek

Subject Random numbers

I think the chances of that particular occurance actually aren't that small.

Porter or someone else can correct my math if I'm wrong. I understand "3 out of 8 rolls being on opposite ends of the spectrum" to mean two 1's and a 20, or two 20's and a 1. The overall probability P = n/N, where n is the number of times the desired (or not desired, as the case may be) outcome occurs and N is the total number of possible combinations of die rolls. N is 20^8 = 2.56e10.

The total possible ways you can get two 1's and a 20 in eight rolls is the same as saying the number of permutations of size three from a set of size eight. That is 8 possible positions for the first 1 times 7 possible possible positions for the second 1 times 6 possible positions for the 20, giving 8*7*6 = 336. Then there is the same number of ways you can get two 20's and one 1, making the total number of permutations 336*2 = 672. Then we also account for the fact that there are 5 more unaccounted for rolls that can have any value from 1 to 20 is 20^5, so the numerator n = 2*(8*7*6)*20^5 = 2.12e9. Taking the ratio of the two is

P = (2*8*7*6*20^5)/20^8 = (2*8*7*6)/20^3 = 21/250 = 0.084 = 8.4% probability.

So it's really not that unusual or extraordinary of an occurance.



From: Randy

Subject Random numbers

I didn't look too closely at the math so I don't know how this would affect the numbers but this situation was 3 20s and a 1 in 8 rolls. That must change it some. It's been a long time since I have looked at this kind of math so I'm not going to even try to figure it out.

It wouldn't be any more or less likely to have 3 12s and 1 8 though. This set of numbers just happens to suck for Ranthir.



From: Derek

Subject Random numbers

I misunderstood what Karl said then. In that case, the probability of having three 20's and one 1 in eight rolls is:

P = (8*7*6*5*20^4)/20^8 = (8*7*6*5)/20^4 = 0.01050 = 1.05%. Somewhat less likely, but not nearly low enough for me to question the randomness of the random number generator.



From: Kevin

Subject Randomo numbers

I knew one of you number guys would understand this.

I always thought that when my math classes started using more letters than numbers, I had reached my limit of understanding, since I was very poor at English and composition.

Derek, thanks for the information - now my head hurts and I will have to go ease the pain with a beer.



From: Mark

Subject Round 1

Round 1: Mund(23), Salix (22), Ragnar (20), Kal (19), Surin (17), Allistair (17), S1 (10), S2 (10), Harp (7), Ranthir (4).

Mund stands next to Ran, his eyes gleaming. He swings his axe at the things (S1) head (AC17, 10+10, hit, damage 0). His axe blade hits the head squarely but the the steel seems to leave no mark on the burning flesh of his foe. He swings again and connects again (AC17, 18+5=23, hit, damage 0), but the same thing happens.

Salix chants the prayer that would summon his allies and is gratified when Obad Hai responds with three hippogriffs. They appear between the two salamanders and he squawks at them. One of them moves to assist Ranthir and Mund while the other two move towards the one closest to them.

The first Hippogriff (H1) claws at the burning creature (AC 17, 3+6=9, miss) but the creature ducks underneath the attack. The second winged beast (H2) attacks it's foe (S2) with beak and claws (AC17, 10+8=18, hit, 9+8=17, hit, 3+3=6, miss, damage 0). However, the claws seem to have no effect. The third hippogriff (H3) takes a small hop and also attacks in a flurry of claws and beak (AC17, 20+8=28, hit, critical threat, Critical threat roll 1+8=9,miss, AC17, 1+8=9,miss, 19+3=22, hit, damage 0) Again the slashing claw and vicious beak seem to have no effect.

Ragnar breathes steadily. He had not seen too much combat on this mission but now was the time to step forward. Taking advantage of the distraction provided by the hippogriffs, Ragnar slashes at the salamanders (S2) exposed back. His sword strikes true (AC17, 14+12=26, hit, damage 1) He is surprised to see his sword do almost no damage to the beast.

Kal sees the advantage that the hippogriff's are providing and steps between Harp and Ragnar, forming a solid wall before the spell casters. His rapier darts in (AC17, 3+14=17, hit, damage 9). His thin blade slides into the ribcage of the burning creature (S2) in front of him. He feels the heat of the thing even through his armor.

Trying his best to be unobtrusive, Surin moves cautiously between Ragnar and the two along the back wall, looking for a spot to throw an axe. Seeing that the side is open, he plans on getting into position in the next few seconds.

Allistair chants his mage arrow spell and three bolts of energy streak from his fingers tips. They fly around Ragnar and strikes the salamander (S2) in the chest (Damage 10). They cause obvious pain to the creature who howls when the bolts strike.

The salamanders finally seem to respond. The one by the far door (S1) strikes at Mund twice with his burning spear (AC22, 6+11=17,miss, 12+6=18,miss) but the barbarian easily dodges the thrusts. However Mund does not see the tail snake around and coil around his leg (AC22, 16+9=25,hit damage 16). He feels his skin burn and kicks at the tail (Grapple check, Salamander 14+11=25, Mund 19+13=32, fail). The snake like tail flips around and retreats.

The one nearer the door the party entered (S2) focuses on Kal and strikes at him with his spear (AC18, 3+11=14,miss, 15+6=21, hit, damage 11). The elf dodges the first thrust, but fails to get out of the way of the second and the spear blade creases the skin on his arm. The wound would have been a bloody one except the heat of the blade cauterizes the wound as it is made. The things tail snakes back and grabs one of the hippogriffs (H2) (AC15, 10+9=19,hit, damage 10). The hippogriff bites at the tail as it tries to snake around its legs(Opposed grapple check, S2, 6+11=17 vs. 17+11=28, fail) and the tail retreats.

Harp, a battle cry to the battle lord on his lips, swings his sword with all his might. His sword flashes in the flame light of the room (AC18, 19+13=32,hit, critical threat, Critical threat roll, AC18, 12+13,critical hit, damage 20). The sword crashes down on the things shoulder and cuts a burning bloody swath down it side. Pulling his sword free he makes another backhand cut at the things neck (AC18,.16+8=24,hit, damage 11) and almost cuts the head off. The creature puts a hand on it's neck wound, trying to staunch the flow of blood.

Ranthir looks for a spot to strike. Seeing an opening his blade darts in and hits (AC18, 14+13=27, hit, damage 0) the thing in the side. He curses when he sees his blade do no damage. The fighter spins and slashes again (AC18, 9+8=17, miss) but this time the thing leaps away from the blow and it goes wide.

OODM: End round 1. I need round 2 actions. S2 is looking very beat on. I have attached a new map for the start of round 2



From: Mark

Subject Correction

One correction. Harp does not have 2 attacks per round, so the second attack did not happen and S2 has 11 more hit points.